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Welcome to the first edition of Subject to Finance. 

A free weekly newsletter covering the finance side of Australian property. 

Every Sunday we break down the week’s biggest stories across property stocks, deals, data releases and policy moves so you don’t have to. 

Expect ASX property wrap-ups, auction clearance numbers, the headlines that actually matter and the odd spicy take. 

Whether you’re an investor, agent, broker, developer or just someone who finds negative gearing weirdly fascinating - this one’s for you. 

Grab your coffee, it’s a 3–5 minute read.
 
Prospector’s Corner
The headlines that matter
OUE REIT acquired a 19.9% stake in Sydney’s Salesforce Tower from Mitsubishi Estate for A$357m — the week’s biggest cross-border deal. (PR Newswire)
Construction costs are surging with copper up 16.5% YoY and 1,894 builder insolvencies in 12 months — Brisbane is now more expensive to build in than Sydney. (realestate.com.au)
First-home buyer deposit scheme uptake jumped 75% after the October overhaul removed income and price caps — but economists warn it risks inflating prices further. (ABC News)
Miners are the only workers who can afford the typical $1m house on a single income, according to a stark new analysis. The average full-time salary of $106,657 buys a $667k apartment at best. Sydney’s median house price of $1.6m is now 16x the average salary — in 1996 it was 5x. (The Nightly)
Heritage laws are locking up 20%+ of residential land within 10km of Sydney’s CBD and nearly 30% in Melbourne — the Centre for Independent Studies says it’s worsening the housing crisis by protecting low-value buildings without weighing the economic cost. (Bloomberg)
Negative gearing could be capped at two investment properties, with the CGT discount cut from 50% to 33%, as Treasury models changes ahead of the May Budget. The Grattan Institute estimates rents would rise ~$1/week; the Property Council says it would crush rental supply. (The Nightly / The Australian)
Wealthy investors are pivoting from residential to commercial property en masse — one firm reports inquiries up 60% on this time last year. Net yields of 5–8% and 3–10 year leases are drawing capital away from negatively geared resi. (Yahoo Finance / Livewire)
 

 
In the Boardroom
Opinion

We came across this article a few days ago. 

A great summary of the wave of buyers agents now promoting property “accumulation” strategies - an investment strategy that they all seem to claim IS NOT Financial Advice. 

A great read for anyone considering it - especially those buying in suburbs they have never heard of until their advisor… sorry, buyers agent bought it to their attention
Know a deal, a story, or a property hot take we missed?
Hit reply.

 
For the Data Nerds
Auction Clearance Rates — W/E 28 Feb (Final)
City This Week Prior Week Auctions
Sydney 65.0% 62.4% 997
Melbourne 68.1% 59.3% 1,641
Canberra 59.0% — 73
Adelaide 69.0% — 100
Source: Domain, SQM Research. Melbourne preliminary only.
This Week’s Numbers
CPI came in hot at 3.8% — trimmed mean at 3.4%, both above forecasts. The RBA’s 2–3% target feels further away than ever. All four big banks now tipping a May hike. (ABS)
RBA cash rate sits at 3.85% after the February cut — but swap markets are pricing a hike back to 4.10% by May. Next meeting 16–17 March. (RBA)
~3,400 auctions this weekend — biggest volume of the year so far. Sydney’s clearance rate dropped nearly 8 points week-on-week. If this holds below 60% for two consecutive weeks, expect the crash narrative to resurface. (MacroBusiness)
Treasury is modelling a two-property cap on negative gearing and cutting the CGT discount from 50% to 33% ahead of the May Budget. The PBO estimates negative gearing costs taxpayers $7.9bn/year; the Grattan Institute says scrapping it would boost owner-occupier share by 4.7% and lift median rents by just ~$1/week. (The Nightly)
 
On the Market
ASX Property Wrap — Week of 23–28 Feb 2026
Lendlease (LLC) — Statutory loss of $318m driven by construction write-downs; IDC EPS guidance of 28–34c maintained. Shares at a 38-year low.
Scentre Group (SCG) — FY25 annual report released; distribution of 8.905c/security paid 27 Feb.
Abacus Group (ABG) — Statutory profit $47.6m (up from HY25 loss); FFO $40.1m; ASK internalisation discussions ongoing.
Ingenia Communities (INA) — Revenue $257.3m; underlying profit $62.1m; FY26 EBIT guidance reaffirmed at top end.
STAR OF THE WEEK Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) — Record NPAT $39.6m (+163%); FY26 guidance upgraded to 30–35% growth.
Centuria Capital (CNI) — Record AUM $21.8bn; FY26 OEPS guidance upgraded 11.5% to 13.6c.
Growthpoint Properties (GOZ) — FFO $91.9m (+3.4%); office occupancy lifted to 94%; FY26 guidance upgraded.
Cromwell Property (CMW) — Operating profit +1.5% to $55.9m; AUM hits $5.0bn; portfolio 97.2% occupied.
Waypoint REIT (WPR) — FY25 DEPS 16.64c (+1.0%); FY26 guidance +3.0% growth; $50m buyback completed.
GDI Property Group (GDI) — FFO surged 29.1% to $21.3m; NTA stable at $1.20; distribution 2.50c declared. (Investing.com)
GemLife Communities (GLF) — Maiden FY25 result beat all prospectus forecasts; underlying NPAT $90m; FY26 EPS guidance 28.5–30.0c (+20–27% growth). (ASX)
Finbar Group (FRI) — NPAT +12.9% to $10.6m; record first-half sales of $368m (409 units); pre-sales at a record $523m (+76%). Founder John Chan transitions to Executive Chairman. (ASX)
Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF) — NTA $0.42/unit; preferred buyer found for sole Brisbane asset at $40m; fund intends to delist and wind up.
WOTSO (WOT) — Revenue +3% to $24.6m; EBITDA +6% to $5.4m; network expanded to 35 locations; Yandina property sale for $27m disclosed. (ASX)
Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) — Revenue $23.3m; EPS $0.032; result includes $15.4m one-off gain from asset sales. (ASX)
Carindale Property Trust (CDP) — H1 FY26 results released; distribution of 14.94c/unit declared. (ASX)
RAM Essential Services Property Fund (REP) — Solid HY26 result; accelerating strategic pivot to healthcare and essential services assets. (ASX)
United Overseas Australia (UOS) — Full-year preliminary report released; interim dividend of 2c/share declared. (ASX)
LDR Capital Property Fund (LED) — HY26 results and leasing update released for commercial office portfolio. (ASX)
 
Settlement Day
Deals & M&A
OUE REIT → 19.9% of Salesforce Tower, Sydney (A$357m)
Singapore REIT’s Australian debut — 99.2% occupied, freehold premium office. (PR Newswire)
Rethink Capital → News Corp printing facility, Yandina QLD (A$27m)
Record Sunshine Coast industrial deal — 22,960sqm site, leased to 2036. (Commercial Ready)
Hometown Australia → Merrifield VIC from Lifestyle Communities (~A$38m)
First Victorian entry for the land-lease operator — 196-home over-55s resort. (The Weekly Source)
Veris Residential take-private by Affinius Capital (US$3.4B)
Largest global REIT take-private of the week — 6,581 US Class A apartments. (Reuters)
Brookfield → Peakstone Realty Trust (US$1.2B)
Another industrial REIT goes private — Brookfield adds IOS portfolio. (LA Times)
Bondi Beach beachfront freehold hits market
96 Campbell Parade listed for auction April 21, expectations >A$25m. One of Bondi’s last remaining absolute beachfront freeholds. (Cushman & Wakefield)
 
What’s Settling Next Week
📊 Q4 GDP drops Wednesday (4 March) — market expects ~0.6% QoQ, with the annual rate around 2.1%. Private investment, especially data-centre capex, is tipped to do the heavy lifting. A miss below 0.4% would reignite recession talk; anything above 0.8% probably seals the May hike. (IG)
🏛️ RBA Governor Bullock speaks Monday evening — her first public appearance since the hot January CPI print. Any shift in language from “wait and see” to something more hawkish could move rate-hike pricing for the 16–17 March meeting. (LiteFinance)
🌏 Trade balance Thursday (5 March) — December’s surplus narrowed to $3.4bn. Iron ore and coal volumes will be in focus, as both feed into A$ strength and, indirectly, into mining-town property demand.
🏠 ~2,770 auctions scheduled this Saturday (8 March) — volumes stay elevated. Watch whether Sydney can hold above 65% or slips back toward the 62% danger zone.
 
Social Media Fix
💬  r/AusFinance — 107 upvotes
“RBA says the economy is too hot… yet most people I know struggle”
On $140k after mortgage, insurance (+40%), and groceries, the poster says their lifestyle resembles what $65k bought in 2019. The top comment nails the K-shaped split: “Those who bought their home 10+ years ago are less concerned. Those who bought in the last decade are advocating for raises.” Over-55s with paid-off homes earning 4.5% on $3.5m in super are driving the “hot economy” — not millennials eating $7.50 flat whites.
𝕏  @larissawaters — 1,011 likes • 469 replies • 233 retweets
“Negative gearing changes are back on the table following our campaign to end investor handouts. Unfair tax discounts just make housing more expensive.”
Greens leader Larissa Waters went full victory lap on the negative gearing news and her mentions turned into an absolute battlefield. Landlords, renters, first-home buyers, and Greens haters all piling in. One reply summed up the cynicism: “It will never happen — too many voters with an investment property or two. We’ve tied our sense of economic growth to the housing market.” 469 replies and counting. Popcorn recommended.
 
Jargon Buster
📖  Trimmed Mean Inflation
The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation. It strips out the most volatile 15% of price changes from each end (like petrol spikes or electricity rebates) to show the “true” trend. Think of it as CPI without the drama. This week’s read: 3.4% — still well above the RBA’s 2–3% target.
 
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