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Prospector’s Corner
The headlines that matter
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| RBA hikes again to 4.10% - The RBA just reversed every 2025 rate cut in two months, and the governor isn’t ruling out recession. RBA | Domain |
| Auction clearance rates in freefall - Sydney and Melbourne clearance rates are cratering as listings surge 58% and buyers go cold - before the rate hike even landed. Domain |
| Rental vacancy falls to 1.1% - At $688/week and tightening fast, Australia’s rental crisis is now actively fuelling the very inflation the RBA is trying to kill. SQM Research |
| A-REITs down 15% year-to-date - Listed property is getting crushed by rate headwinds, and analysts see no relief until the RBA blinks. FNArena |
| Construction costs heating back up - A new industry report warns 4–6% cost growth and a potential $42B shortfall in construction output if rates keep rising. RLB |
| Variable rates heading back above 6% - With 97% of Australian mortgages on variable rates, households are doing all the heavy lifting for RBA policy - and experts say the system is broken. ABC News |
| Stockland taps UK giant M&G for land lease play - A major UK institutional player just made its first bet on Australian residential property, picking one of the worst weeks imaginable to do it. Mingtiandi |
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In the Boardroom
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Last year we wrote about where Australia sits on the 18-year property clock. We placed it at roughly hour 17: the start of the downturn phase, where foreclosures and construction bankruptcies begin ticking up. This week gave us two more data points that suggest the clock is still ticking in the same direction. Evidence #1: Building approvals just collapsed. January approvals came in at 14,564 dwellings, with apartment approvals down 24.5% in a single month. Australia needs roughly 20,000 approvals per month to meet the National Housing Accord target. We are not even close. The pipeline is shrinking at the exact moment the population is growing. That is textbook hour 17 behaviour: activity slowing, confidence cracking. Evidence #2: Clearance rates just fell off a cliff. Sydney went from 68% to 58% in three weeks. Melbourne from 63% to 59%. This is happening before the March rate hike has even fully hit mortgage repayments. When it does, that gap is only going to widen. The clock does not care about sentiment or what the government promises. It measures behaviour. And right now, builders are pulling back, buyers are retreating, and the RBA is still tightening. The question is not whether we are in the downturn phase. It is how long it lasts. Where do you think we are in the cycle? (arguably 19? maybe the early days of 20?) |
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For the Data Nerds
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Auction Clearance Rates - W/E 22 Mar (Preliminary)
Third straight week of declining clearance rates. Sydney has dropped 10 percentage points in three weeks.
Source: Domain. ⚠️ These are preliminary Saturday-evening numbers. Final rates publish Thursday 27 March and typically revise 3–5 points lower.
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This Week’s Numbers
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On the Market
ASX Property Weekly Wrap
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| REITs |
| NSR (National Storage) $2.76 | -0.4% - Scheme Booklet dispatched for the $4 billion Brookfield/GIC takeover. Securityholder vote on 15 April. Price locked near the $2.86 deal price. MarketIndex |
| SGP (Stockland) $4.28 | -7.8% - Hit a new 52-week low. Down 36% over 12 months from $6.73. No new announcements, just relentless rate-driven selling despite solid 1H26 results (FFO up 29.5%). Intelligent Investor |
| GMG (Goodman Group) ~$25.50 | -0.8% - Touched 52-week low of $25.42 on Monday. Down 29% from its 12-month high. Fundamentals are strong ($1.2bn 1H26 operating profit), but the market wanted a guidance upgrade that did not come. Goodman |
| HMC (HMC Capital) $2.25 | -4.3% - Analysts slashed fair value from $5.06 to $3.94. More than 50% below previous highs. Confidence in AUM growth trajectory is fading. Yahoo Finance |
| VCX (Vicinity Centres) $2.38 | +3.0% - One of the few bright spots. 16% total shareholder return over 12 months. Analysts rate it 11% undervalued at a $2.60 fair value. Simply Wall St |
| Developers |
| LLC (Lendlease) $3.30 | -6.0% - Lowest price since December 1987. Down 47% from its 12-month high. Macquarie Group exited as a substantial holder. CEO Lombardo calls FY26 a “transitional year” with $2.8bn in asset sales still to complete. Reuters |
| Property Services |
| REA (REA Group) ~$157 | -7.8% - Brutal selloff continues with no new company news. Market fixated on declining listings (-6% in H1 FY26) and an ACCC probe into listing fee pricing. Trading well below all major analyst targets (UBS $218.90, JP Morgan $215). MarketIndex |
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Settlement Day
Major deals and M&A
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| OUE REIT completed its acquisition of a 19.9% stake in Salesforce Tower (180 George Street, Sydney) from Mitsubishi Estate for A$357m. Singapore REIT’s first Australian asset, 99.2% occupied, 5.8% passing yield. OUE REIT |
| Charter Hall sold Lansell Square shopping centre in Bendigo to an offshore Asian family office for A$110.1m off-market. 23,498sqm, anchored by Coles, Woolworths and Kmart. Development Ready |
| ASA Real Estate acquired the Liberman family’s A-grade Collingwood office (54 Wellington St) from Impact Investment Group for approximately A$108m at a 6.67% yield. Fitzroys |
| Yourland-led consortium acquired the former Huntly Lodge site at Sunbury from Mondous Property Group for approximately A$160m. 82 hectares, capable of 1,000+ homes. Fitzroys |
| Nuveen / Aliro acquired 63 Jedda Road, Prestons (Sydney) from Blackstone-backed 151 Property for approximately A$100m. Nuveen’s first Australian industrial deal. Real Estate Source |
| GIC / Haben Group formed a A$500m convenience retail JV targeting neighbourhood shopping centres. GIC also backed Hale Capital’s A$750m second-vintage logistics fund alongside Warburg Pincus and Oxford Properties. Mingtiandi |
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What’s Settling Next Week
Forward look
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| Wed 25 Mar - ABS CPI (Feb 2026). The big one. Housing is the largest CPI contributor at 6.8% annual. Markets will be watching for any softening after back-to-back rate hikes. ABS |
| Wed 25 Mar - ABS Engineering Construction Activity (Dec Q 2025). Private-sector construction fell 14.2% in the September quarter. This release will show whether the pipeline is getting worse. ABS |
| Thu 26 Mar - ABS Finance & Wealth (Dec Q 2025). Household wealth and housing loan data. September quarter had wealth at $18.4 trillion. Will confirm whether the property-wealth engine is still running. ABS |
| Senate CGT Inquiry Report. Landed this week and will drive debate into the May budget. Found the CGT discount “has the potential to distort investment allocation” and, combined with negative gearing, has “skewed housing ownership towards investors.” Expect fireworks. Accountants Daily |
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Social Media Fix
What the internet is arguing about
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